[Quick Facts]
1. Putin: Russia and the U.S. could agree on a 50% reduction in military armaments
2. Leading German Chancellor candidate seeks to establish a “Black-Red Coalition”
3. The EU’s industry ministers will convene to address steel tariffs
4. Dhingra: Internal disagreement exists within the BOE on the race of rate cuts
5. Trump: Negotiations with Putin on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict and bilateral issues are progressing smoothly
[News Details]
Putin: Russia and the U.S. could agree on a 50% reduction in military armaments
During a statement made on the 24th, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is avoiding the commencement of peace negotiations, as such talks would necessitate the revocation of martial law and the organization of elections. However, Zelenskyy’s current approval ratings are only half of those of Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and current Ambassador to the UK. Putin stated that the decree signed by Zelenskyy, which prohibits negotiations with Russia, has placed him in a precarious position. Putin also emphasized that Russia does not object to the preservation of Ukrainian statehood, but its territory should not be utilized as a hostile base against Russia.
Furthermore, Putin suggested that European nations should participate in the negotiation process concerning the Ukrainian issue. He clarified that he and U.S. President Donald Trump have not engaged in substantive discussions regarding the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict. He also disclosed that Russia and the U.S. could potentially reach an agreement to reduce military armaments by 50%. Putin added that Russian and American companies have initiated discussions on collaborative projects, and Russia intends to resume aluminum exports to the U.S., with a target of 2 million tons, which would contribute to stabilizing the price of this commodity.
Leading German Chancellor candidate seeks to establish a “Black-Red Coalition”
On February 24, Merz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) chairman and the leading candidate for chancellor from the CDU/CSU, the largest party in the new Bundestag, announced his intention to hold discussions with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the third-largest party in the new Bundestag and the party of current Chancellor Scholz. He is prepared to negotiate with the SPD to form a “Black-Red Coalition” and establish a coalition government. (Note: The CDU/CSU’s representative color is black, while the SPD’s is red.) In response, Klingbeil, the co-chair of the SPD, stated that it is currently uncertain whether the SPD will join the new government.
The EU’s industry ministers will convene to address steel tariffs
According to Agence France-Presse, the French Ministry of Industry announced on Monday evening that European industry ministers will meet in Paris on Thursday to discuss measures to sustain European steel production and address U.S. tariffs. The European steel industry is being impacted by U.S. President Trump’s executive order, which, disregarding warnings from Brussels, imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum starting March 12. The French Ministry of Industry indicated that ministers from approximately 15 European steel-producing countries are expected to attend the Paris meeting. Participants will share findings and solutions with other stakeholders from the steel industry, including “enterprises and trade unions,” and are expected to sign a joint statement on safeguarding the European steel industry.
Dhingra: Internal disagreement exists within the BOE on the race of rate cuts
In a speech on Monday, Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee member Dhingra expressed concern about the impending rise in inflation, which coincides with significant projects. Excluding housing, producer prices in the services sector are experiencing a “substantial rebound.”
There is clear evidence that the labor market is cooling. Job vacancies in retail and hospitality may decrease, as these sectors have fewer vacancies than before the COVID-19 pandemic. While wages have increased, consumption has not, indicating that “something has changed in this process.” Household savings are not “chasing” goods and services. Consumer spending may remain weak, and inflationary pressures will be contained.
The media’s interpretation of “gradual” as a 25-basis-point rate cut per quarter is inconsistent with the committee’s official statements. Even with a 25-basis-point reduction each quarter, monetary policy would remain in restrictive territory for the year, according to most metrics. My personal interpretation of “gradual” differs from the media’s, and this divergence within the Monetary Policy Committee indicates a lack of consensus on the future pace of rate cuts.
Dhingra, who has consistently maintained a dovish stance on the Monetary Policy Committee, was among the officials who supported a 50-basis-point cut in the last policy meeting, along with Mann.
Trump: Negotiations with Putin on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict and bilateral issues are progressing smoothly
On the 24th, U.S. President Trump stated via social media that he is engaged in serious discussions with Russian President Putin regarding the cessation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and significant economic development transactions between the U.S. and Russia, with negotiations advancing favorably. He also mentioned that he addressed the G7 summit alongside French President Macron on the same day. He noted that all parties expressed a desire for the conflict’s resolution. He emphasized the importance of the “critical minerals and rare earth agreement” between the U.S. and Ukraine, expressing hope for its prompt signing.
[Today’s Focus]
UTC+8 10:45 Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Jones Delivers a Speech
UTC+8 17:20 Dallas Fed President Logan Delivers a Speech
UTC+8 18:00 Deutsche Bundesbank President Nagel Releases Annual Report
UTC+8 21:00 ECB Executive Board Member Schnabel Delivers a Speech
UTC+8 23:00 U.S. February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
UTC+8 00:45 Fed Governor Barr Delivers a Speech
UTC+8 02:00 Richmond Fed President Barkin Speaks on Inflation
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